Gippsland will likely play a key role in whether the surge in One Nation polling translates to the party playing any part in governing Victoria.

Redbridge polling analyst Kos Samaras told the Monitor that polling suggests tight races in the electorates of Bass and Gippsland East - won by Labor and the Nationals respectively in 2022.

A rundown: The Coalition needs 16 more seats to govern in its own right, but this is no ordinary two-way contest between Labor and the Coalition. 

The rise of a serious third player in One Nation means the way voters assign their preferences will be crucial in whether the Coalition can kick Labor to the curb and form government.

“They don’t require a large primary vote to [form government] because it's all about who is winning the three-way contests,” he said.

What are preferences? Voters number their preferred candidates in descending order from one to six.

When the votes are tallied, the candidate with the least amount of primary votes is removed first. Election workers then count the second preferences of the voters who chose to put the removed candidate first.

This process is repeated until there are only two candidates left, and the winner is the person who can get to 50 percent + one vote, once all the preferences are distributed.

Redbridge polling shows it’s likely that if a Liberal or National candidate is ahead of a One Nation contender on primary votes, they will likely receive the majority of preferences from One Nation voters. And vice-versa. 

However, part of the mystery is in the fact not every One Nation voter will put the Coalition ahead of Labor, and not every Coalition voter will put One Nation ahead of Labor.

What does the polling say? In Redbridge’s latest poll the Coalition had 29 percent of the primary vote, One Nation 25 percent and Labor 24 percent.

If the Coalition can’t find a way to win a majority of seats, it may have to make a deal with One Nation to form a government. Nobody knows what One Nation would demand in return for guaranteeing the required votes in parliament.

What’s happening in Bass?

Jordan Crugnale was elected as the Labor member for Bass in 2018 and held the seat in 2022 with a tiny (0.4 percent) majority after preferences.

Crugnale is retiring at this election, and Labor has preselected Chris Buckingham, former CEO of Latrobe Valley Authority and facilitator at Gippsland Women’s Health, as its  candidate.

In April, the Liberal Party preselected former Bass Coast Shire Mayor Rochelle Halstead.

One Nation has announced Nikole Schellekens as its candidate for the seat. Schellekens has over 20 years of experience across mental health, education and community services.

In 2022, One Nation did not contest the seat, but Samaras says that within one election cycle the face of politics in Bass could dramatically change.

What’s happening in Gippsland East?

In Gippsland East, Samaras said One Nation needs to achieve a high primary vote to get over the top of the National Party, which has held the seat since 2010.

“If the Nationals are anywhere near close to One Nation, Labor preferences will elect the Nationals.”

In the 2022 election Nationals MP Tim Bull held the seat with 63.3 percent of first preference votes and a two-party preferred vote of 73.9 percent. These are the types of beautiful numbers politicians dream of.

But Bull announced his retirement from politics in May, leading to the Nationals picking local school teacher, community volunteer and farmer, Gemma Rendell, as its candidate in June.

Labor has announced Cowwarr’s Sonny Stephens as its candidate. Stephens has spent 20 years working in public and private health, welfare and social support sectors.

The One Nation candidate is Steve Goodman, a Tinamba resident who grew up on a Gippsland dairy farm and spent 12 years running earthworks and civil construction projects in Western Australia.

Check out the Monitor’s in-depth Victorian 2026 election guide here for a breakdown of every Gippsland electorate and candidate.