El Niño event declared with modelling suggesting it could bring hotter and drier conditions to much of Gippsland
Victoria is expected to have below average rainfall for winter and spring.
Jacob Wallace
June 17, 2026
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared an El Niño weather event with modelling suggesting it could be the strongest on record. It’s rough news for Gippsland farmers who have already experienced an extreme dry season last year.
What is El Niño? El Niño is a climate phenomenon where surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual. This disrupts weather patterns and usually brings drier conditions to parts of Australia.
Rainfall and temperature impacts from one El Niño event to another can vary.
Comparing two different El Niño seasons. Image from the BOM.
Impacts on Australia: The BOM’s three month forecast predicts that rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia. Temperatures are likely to be above average in most areas, except parts of the north.
Average rainfall declines during an El Niño year. Image from the BOM.
What does it mean for Gippsland?
Much of Victoria is expected to have below average rainfall for winter and spring, which could add pressure to farmers who already experienced a drier than average season last year.
In October last year, Neerim South dairy farmer Dave Johnson told the Monitor it had probably been the driest season he’d experienced in 40 years.
Johnson said the season had been so dry his farm had “exhausted all of our feed reserves, which we thought we had reasonable levels of. That was probably the biggest impact on the profitability last financial year.”
Why is this El Niño stronger? This event is likely to be graded as strong to very strong due to forecasts of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
Research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states there is a 63 percent chance that this year's El Niño would rank among the strongest events since historical records began in 1950.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Image from NOAA.
It’s getting hot in here: The southern half of Australia has had above average temperatures so far this year and an El Niño events typically boosts global temperatures in the following year.
Australia has had 14 of its 15 warmest years on record since the year 2000.