How an El Niño event will impact Gippsland’s winter ski season

Over the long weekend, ski season kicked off around Australia’s East Coast with snow guns billowing out soft white powder over the mountains and slopes in preparation for eager snowboarders and skiers.

But research from the CSIRO and Monash University is warning that Australian ski seasons are getting shorter.

Avid skier and professor of atmosphere and environment at Monash University, Dr Andrew Watkins, told the Monitor when he was young he wouldn’t get out of bed for less than a metre of snow.

“I've observed changes throughout my lifetime. My daughter gets excited about a lot less snow than I used to at her age.”

• Watkins was the head of BoM’s long-range forecast team between 2012 and 2022.

What happened: With an El Niño season looking likely to be confirmed in the coming weeks, snow season in Gippsland could be impacted by a combination of warming temperatures and drier conditions through winter and spring.

Trudi Reiter and husband Craig operate Mount Baw Baw Ski Hire.

“Mount Baw Baw has always, without a doubt, suffered if there is a slightly warmer or slightly drier winter more than any other resort, because it's lower,” Trudi, who grew up on the mountain, told the Monitor.

“If it's a lower altitude and if it's just a shade warmer than the year before you don't get snow, you get rain, or if it's drier then you don't get snow, you get nothing.”

She added that the flip side was snow making technology had improved greatly over the years.

Reduced snow

Trudi said it was hard to pinpoint a consistent decline in snowfall on the mountain since her childhood, but research from Monash University shows there’s been about a 30 percent reduction in winter snow volume and coverage across the Australian Alps since 1954.

Watkins said due to rising global temperatures the research predicts there will be another 30 percent reduction between now and 2050.

“For the amount of carbon dioxide we emit, we’re probably looking at a reduction of about three weeks in our snow season length at most [Australian] ski resorts by 2050,” Watkins said.

“Rather than getting spring snow, it gets a bit wet as things warm up. Unfortunately, warm spring rain is the natural enemy of snow.”

Watkins said an El Niño event could also have a serious impact on this year's snow season.

What if it’s an El Niño season?

It’s expected that the BoM will announce an El Niño weather event in the coming weeks.

• What is El Niño? It’s a climate phenomenon where surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual. This disrupts weather patterns and brings drier conditions to parts of Australia.

Watkins said there can be pros and cons to snowfall in an El Niño weather event.

The drier air means there is typically less snowfall over much of the East Coast, but the cold clear nights can be the best for turning moisture into ice and stopping snow that has dropped from melting.

“There's always going to be natural variability or chance when it comes to weather events,” Watkins said. “But climate change is pushing us towards these shorter seasons and less snow depth; El Niño tends to push us towards that as well.”

The warming trend

The BoM’s long-range winter forecast indicates there will be below average snowfall for much of Australia’s alpine regions and both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average.

Watkins said if an El Niño is announced it’ll give Australians a snapshot of what to expect in the years to come as the climate warms.

Cover image credit: Protect Our Winters (POW). A global not-for-profit that advocates for action on climate change to prevent snow loss.